The Rise and Fall of Major Power Cooperation: The Case of US–China Relations

Tuesday, 9 June 2026, 12pm to 1pm

When and why does major power cooperation decline? Jost explores how regime security threats can impede cooperation between the world’s most powerful countries. Political crises at home and abroad incentivize decision-makers to build institutions, organizations, and ideologies that restore control. However, these actions can impose indirect and unanticipated governance costs for other major powers, thereby undermining cooperation through competitive regime building and elevated threat perceptions. Jost applies this theoretical framework to explain the decline of cooperation between the United States and China from 2013 to 2018. Drawing on an original corpus of Chinese strategic assessments and elite speeches, as well as over one hundred elite interviews conducted in both countries, Jost’s analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that China’s military and economic rise led to the end of US–China engagement, instead illustrating the important role played by regime security threats.

Tyler Jost is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Brown University. His research focuses on national security decision-making, major power politics, and Chinese foreign policy. His work has been published in The China Quarterly, International Organization, International Security, Journal of Conflict Resolution, and International Studies Quarterly. Jost’s first book, Bureaucracies at War, won the Edgar S. Furniss Book Award from the Mershon Center for International Security, the Robert Jervis International Security Book Award and the Herbert A. Simon Book Award from the American Political Science Association, as well as the Asia-Pacific Distinguished Book Award from the International Studies Association. He is currently working on a second book examining major power cooperation in the modern era, focusing on the evolution of US–China relations since 1989. Jost completed his doctoral degree in the Department of Government at Harvard University and has held fellowships at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Columbia University, and Dartmouth College.

Speaker(s): Dr Tyler Jost (Brown University)

Series: China Centre Talks

Venue: Dickson Poon Building, Oxford China Centre - Kin-ku Cheng Lecture Theatre (lower ground floor) - Kin-ku Cheng Lecture Theatre (lower ground floor) Dickson Poon Building Canterbury Road Oxford Oxfordshire OX2 6LU United Kingdom

Department: Asian and Middle Eastern Studies (Department)

Host: Professor Todd Hall