Convergence and its Implications behind the ‘Fragmentation’ of US South China Sea Policy in Trump’s Second Term

Monday, 8 June 2026, 12pm to 1pm

This presentation examines US South China Sea policy during Trump’s second term and addresses two central questions. First, why has US policy towards the South China Sea appeared increasingly fragmented at the institutional level? Second, despite this apparent fragmentation, what mechanisms have contributed to the hardening of US policy, and with what implications?

To explore these questions, the presentation develops a ‘2025 US South China Sea Discourse Database’ and employs structured coding and statistical analysis. The findings suggest that US South China Sea policy is shaped collectively by a range of actors, including government institutions, Congress, think tanks, and the media. Although policy discourse may appear fragmented on the surface, these actors demonstrate a significant degree of convergence in their narratives concerning the South China Sea. It is further argued that this increasingly negative policy environment may produce wider effects through multi-layered processes of political and discursive transmission.

Keyin Jiang is Professor at Hainan Medical University. Her research focuses on international studies and South China Sea affairs. She has led two projects funded by the National Social Science Foundation of China, alongside several provincial- and ministerial-level research projects.

Speaker(s): Professor Keyin Jiang (Hainan Medical University)

Venue: Dickson Poon Building, Oxford China Centre - Lucina Ho Seminar Room (first floor) - Lucina Ho Seminar Room Dickson Poon Building, Oxford China Centre Canterbury Road Oxford Oxfordshire OX2 6LU United Kingdom

Department: Asian and Middle Eastern Studies (Department)

Host: Professor Maria Jaschok