Guest Lecture Series - Does the shingles vaccine prevent dementia? Evidence from 6.3 million people in England

Wednesday, 17 June 2026, 12.15pm to 1.15pm

Following an influential study in Wales, they examined whether eligibility for the live herpes zoster vaccine reduces dementia risk in England using a regression discontinuity design based on the 2013 UK rollout. An analysis of over 6.3 million individuals using Hospital Episode Statistics data confirmed that vaccine eligibility significantly reduced hospital-coded herpes zoster, validating the study design. However, there was no evidence of a corresponding reduction in hospital-coded dementia, with results remaining null across multiple sensitivity analyses. Additional checks found no substantial bias or confounding that could explain the discrepancy with earlier studies suggesting protective effects, and possible reasons for the discrepancy will be discussed. Overall, the findings suggest that while the vaccine effectively reduces zoster incidence, any impact on dementia risk in England is likely small or absent.

Speaker(s): Professor George Davey-Smith

Series: Guest Lecture Series

Venue: Schwarzman Centre - Radcliffe Observatory Quarter Woodstock Road OX2 6GG

Department: Primary Care Health Sciences (Department)

Organiser: Hayley Smith

Host: Professor Sir Aziz Sheikh

Register here: https://forms.office.com/Pages/ResponsePage.aspx?id=G96VzPWXk0-0uv5ouFLPkZSgIb5XDPxCpCa2QOukLARURElHQzJMR1RUM0QwTVdBMDVYOEQwWFE5NS4u

More info: