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SUMMARY:Roots of Courage: Persistence of Past Repression and Anti-War Diss
 ent in Russia
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20260521T170000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20260521T190000
DTSTAMP:20260513T205325Z
UID:218b2ab3-bf4e-f111-bec7-7c1e52046c40
CREATED:20260513T113436Z
DESCRIPTION:Many autocratic regimes have a history of mass repression. We 
 ask whether such historical violence leaves political legacies that backfi
 re when an autocrat seeks to mobilize support for a war of aggression. We 
 study Russia’s 2022–2025 invasion of Ukraine and exploit spatial varia
 tion in exposure to one of the twentieth century’s largest systems of re
 pression: the Soviet Gulag. Combining the historical geography of 474 Gula
 g administrative centers with granular modern data on (i) anti-war detenti
 ons and (ii) 23 waves of geo-located public opinion surveys\, we document 
 systematically stronger anti-war dissent in municipalities closer to forme
 r camps. These municipalities experience more anti-war detentions\, and th
 eir residents are more likely to express explicit opposition to the war in
  surveys. All effects are concentrated among younger cohorts\, who never e
 xperienced Soviet repression directly but learned about Stalinist crimes i
 n their formative years. To probe this memory channel\, we use novel data 
 on online searches and show that people living in the immediate vicinity o
 f Gulag administrative sites more often search for terms associated with S
 talinist repression around 30 October\, the official Day of Remembrance fo
 r the Victims of Political Repression in Russia. This pattern indicates su
 stained interest in the dark side of Soviet history in locations where the
  physical traces of the camps remain visible\, partially via memorials. Ou
 r findings contribute to the literature on the persistence of political vi
 olence by showing that historical mass repression can constrain an autocra
 t’s ability to generate a wartime “rally-around-the-flag” effect and
  that public commemoration of past injustices is associated with greater r
 esistance to contemporary unlawful military interventions.
LAST-MODIFIED:20260513T114020Z
LOCATION:St Antony's College\, 62 Woodstock Road Oxford
SPEAKER:Dr Andrey Tkachenko (Nazarbayev University)
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