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SUMMARY:The Marginal Impact of Emission Reductions: Estimates\, Beliefs an
 d Behavior
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20260615T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20260615T161500
DTSTAMP:20260608T005309Z
UID:21e0e299-6219-f111-8342-7c1e522d9057
CREATED:20260306T140255Z
DESCRIPTION:An important driver of climate change inaction is the belief t
 hat individuals cannot have any tangible impact on climate change through 
 their own actions. Currently available statistics are not suited to system
 atically assess or challenge this belief. In this paper\, I derive the mar
 ginal impact of emission reductions – the effect of reducing emissions b
 y 1 tonne of CO₂ (tCO₂) – on physical climate change outcomes\, docu
 ment important misperceptions\, show how they affect behavior\, and derive
  policy implications. Using climate models\, I find that the impact of red
 ucing emissions by 1 tCO₂ is thousands of liters less glacier ice meltin
 g\, several additional hours of aggregate life expectancy\, and multiple m
 ² less vegetation undergoing ecosystem change. Subjects underestimate the
 se figures by orders of magnitude. Moreover\, their mental model is incons
 istent with climate models. First\, they misperceive climate change as a t
 hreshold public goods game. Second\, they incorrectly assume that the marg
 inal impact increases when others also reduce their emissions (strategic c
 omplementarity). Providing subjects with the climate scientific findings c
 ausally increases perceived self-efficacy\, intentions to reduce own emiss
 ions\, and real donations to reduce global emissions. The misperceptions a
 nd treatment effect are consistent with a mental model of threshold thinki
 ng\, which predicts positive overall emission reductions of information pr
 ovision in equilibrium. Providing information about the marginal impact is
  a cost-effective demand-side mitigation strategy. The information can als
 o serve as a catalyst for other climate policies by reframing their benefi
 ts and challenging arguments against unilateral action that are based on t
 hreshold thinking.
LAST-MODIFIED:20260507T123335Z
LOCATION:Manor Road Building - Seminar Room C\, Seminar Room C Manor Road 
 Building Manor Road Oxford Oxfordshire OX1 3UQ United Kingdom
SPEAKER:Christoph Semken
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