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SUMMARY:Power Preponderance\, Assurance\, and War
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20260602T144500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20260602T170000
DTSTAMP:20260508T101356Z
UID:560fb6df-823d-f111-88b4-7ced8d99a758
CREATED:20260421T130614Z
DESCRIPTION:Join us for an academic talk by Professor Alexandre Debs which
  discusses his ongoing academic research. In this talk\, Professor Debs pr
 esents arguments from his working paper which asks: how could power imbala
 nce lead to war? Some argue that power preponderance causes war by undermi
 ning the credibility of assurances. Others contend instead that non-credib
 le assurances are inconsequential\, fueling future negotiations without af
 fecting the conditions for war. In simple game-theoretic models\, Professo
 r Debs concludes that non-credible assurances do not per se cause conflict
 \, but that power imbalance may nevertheless cause conflict through anothe
 r mechanism. In an unbalanced dyad\, a weak target fears that it may not s
 urvive the initial engagement and it is willing to sue for peace under unf
 avorable terms. The strong party is then incentivized to press its advanta
 ge\, increasing the risk of conflict. In this talk\, Professor Debs discus
 ses how this model sheds light on prominent cases.\n\nBiography of the Spe
 aker: Alexandre Debs is a Professor of Political Science and is the Facult
 y Director of the Nuclear Security Program at the MacMillan Center for Int
 ernational and Area Studies at Yale University. He obtained his PhD in Eco
 nomics from MIT\, his MPhil in Economic and Social History from the Univer
 sity of Oxford\, and his BSc in Economics and Mathematics from the Univers
 ite de Montreal. His research discusses the causes of war\, nuclear prolif
 eration\, and democratization. He is the author of the book "Nuclear Polit
 ics: The Strategic Causes of Proliferation"\, co-written with Nuno Monteir
 o and published by Cambridge University Press.
LAST-MODIFIED:20260422T104706Z
LOCATION:Nuffield College - Lecture Theatre\, Lecture Theatre Nuffield Col
 lege New Road Oxford Oxfordshire OX1 1NF United Kingdom
SPEAKER:Alexandre Debs (Yale University)\, Lauren Sukin (University of Oxf
 ord)
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