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SUMMARY:Security Threats and Support for the Far Right:  Evidence from Ru
 ssian Aggression in Europe
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20260507T123000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20260507T140000
DTSTAMP:20260507T162137Z
UID:7fcf083e-3f2c-f111-88b4-7ced8d99a758
CREATED:20260330T134922Z
DESCRIPTION:This paper examines whether external security threats reduce p
 opular support for far-right parties\, focusing on Russia’s 2022 invasio
 n of Ukraine. Existing scholarship suggests that such threats should weake
 n extremist parties by generating rally effects\, shifting attention to fo
 reign policy\, and increasing demand for experienced leadership. Contrary 
 to these expectations\, descriptive trends show that far-right support in 
 Western Europe increased following the invasion. We examine this question 
 through two studies. First\, we leverage an unexpected event during survey
  design using European Social Survey data and find no evidence that exposu
 re to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reduced support for far-right parties
 . Second\, we conduct a pre-registered survey experiment in Germany\, whic
 h similarly shows that exposure to a hypothetical security threat does not
  decrease support for far-right parties. Instead\, threats modestly increa
 se support for mainstream center-right incumbents by heightening demand fo
 r competent leadership. Together\, our findings suggest that support for f
 ar-right parties is more resilient to external threats than commonly assum
 ed.
LAST-MODIFIED:20260505T115056Z
LOCATION:Manor Road Building - Seminar Room C\, Seminar Room C Manor Road 
 Building Manor Road Oxford Oxfordshire OX1 3UQ United Kingdom
SPEAKER:Catherine De Vries (IE University)
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