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SUMMARY:Statistics of infectious disease outbreaks - precise title awaited
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20260609T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20260609T140000
DTSTAMP:20260515T150951Z
UID:8c036d2a-b63c-f111-88b4-7ced8d9a5614
CREATED:20260420T124055Z
DESCRIPTION:Bio:\nChristl's research programme brings together and develop
 s statistical and biomathematical methods to analyse epidemiological patte
 rns of infectious diseases. She has worked on a variety of diseases and ha
 s interests in ecology\, conservation and animal welfare.\nShe uses rigoro
 us parameter estimation and hypothesis testing to gain the robust insights
  from dynamical models of disease transmission\, demography and interventi
 ons.\n\nHer research programme aims to improve our understanding of (and a
 bility to predict) the effect of interventions on infectious agent transmi
 ssion dynamics and population structure. The ultimate goal is to make cont
 rol strategies as effective as they can be. Without good estimates of epid
 emiological parameters and knowledge of the associated uncertainty in them
 \, control programmes and preventive measures cannot be designed optimally
  nor evaluated appropriately.\n\nSuch research involves the development of
  new methods due to the complexities of infectious disease systems – but
  always driven by the need to answer practical questions. For example:\nWh
 o is at greatest risk of SAR-CoV-2 infection right now?\nWill culling badg
 ers reduce the incidence of bovine TB in cattle? How might cattle vaccinat
 ion reduce disease risk within a herd?\nHow can modified mosquitoes help r
 educe the risks of dengue?\nHow many MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrom
 e) infections have there been been in the Middle East to date?\nThrough th
 is research\, I have provided quantitative scientific advice to government
  on COVID-19\, bovine TB\, FMD and TSEs (including BSE\, vCJD and scrapie)
 . In this context I served as the deputy chairman of the Independent Scien
 tific Group on Cattle TB (1998-2007) advising government on research and o
 verseeing a large randomized trial of badger culling strategies. I am curr
 ently on the Royal Statistical Society's COVID-19 Task Force (2020-).\n\nI
 n addition to providing science-based policy advice\, she is interested in
  promoting the public understanding of epidemiology and statistics – mak
 ing the conclusions from important results accessible to a wide audience.\
 n\nShe was elected Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS) in 2016 and Fellow of
  the Academy of Medical Sciences (FMedSci) in 2015. I was an honorary fell
 ow of the ZSL Institute of Zoology.\n\nThere will be tea/coffee and cake a
 vailable in the atrium 30 min before the seminar.
LAST-MODIFIED:20260420T124201Z
LOCATION:Richard Doll Building - Lecture Theatre\, Lecture Theatre Richard
  Doll Building Old Road Campus Oxford Oxfordshire OX3 7LF United Kingdom
SPEAKER:Professor Christl Donnelly (St Peter's College)
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