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SUMMARY:Modelling global trade with optimal transport
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20260527T143000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20260527T153000
DTSTAMP:20260525T235157Z
UID:a663b3ff-0c43-f111-bec7-7c1e52046848
CREATED:20260428T141742Z
DESCRIPTION:Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supp
 ly and demand\, including tangible variables like transport costs and tari
 ffs\, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and econom
 ic relations. Traditionally\, economists model trade using gravity models\
 , which rely on explicit covariates that might struggle to capture these s
 ubtler drivers of trade. In this work\, we employ optimal transport and a 
 deep neural network to learn a time-dependent cost function from data\, wi
 thout imposing a specific functional form. This approach consistently outp
 erforms traditional gravity models in accuracy and has similar performance
  to three-way gravity models\, while providing natural uncertainty quantif
 ication. Applying our framework to global food and agricultural trade\, we
  show that low income countries experienced disproportionately higher incr
 eases in trade costs due to the war in Ukraine’s impact on wheat markets
 . We also analyse the effects of free-trade agreements and trade disputes 
 with China\, as well as Brexit’s impact on British trade with Europe\, u
 ncovering hidden patterns that trade volumes alone cannot reveal.\n\nAbout
  the speaker\n\nDr Güven Demirel is an Associate Professor in Supply Chai
 n Management at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL). He holds a PhD in 
 Physics (network science) from the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of
  Complex Systems\, Dresden\, Germany and has worked at the University of N
 ottingham and University of Essex before joining QMUL. He has worked in se
 condment to the Government Office for Science for the future of supply cha
 ins project. Güven conducts interdisciplinary research on complex systems
 \, investigating the dynamics\, resilience\, and sustainability of supply 
 and international business networks\, innovation in supply chains\, food w
 aste in agrifood supply chains\, and the co-evolution of networks. He uses
  methods from network science\, operations research\, statistics\, and gam
 e theory in his research.
LAST-MODIFIED:20260428T142040Z
LOCATION:Manor Road Building - Seminar Room G and online via Zoom\, Semina
 r Room G and online via Zoom Manor Road Building Manor Road Oxford Oxfords
 hire OX1 3UQ United Kingdom
SPEAKER:Dr Güven Demirel (Queen Mary University of London)
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