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SUMMARY:Metrics and Models: Eric Schneider
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20260625T140000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20260625T150000
DTSTAMP:20260609T083355Z
UID:e77f1a10-b156-f111-a825-6045bd12f634
CREATED:20260523T140951Z
DESCRIPTION:Talk Title: Transport and the Transmission of Plague across Se
 ttlements in Early Modern England\n\nAbstract: Plague was the most lethal 
 disease in early modern England. However\, there is limited large-scale qu
 antitative evidence about the factors that allowed plague to spread betwee
 n settlements. This paper analyses a novel dataset of aggregated monthly b
 urial totals covering more than 4\,000 parishes between 1557 and 1667. We 
 measure how frequently settlements experienced plague epidemics and analys
 e the factors leading to outbreaks\, particularly whether the transmission
  of plague was affected by the transport network. We find that plague affe
 cted relatively few settlements in this period\, did not spread in the cha
 racteristic wave of the Black Death\, and was not strongly linked to trans
 port. Settlements on arterial roads running from London to other major tow
 ns had an increased chance of having a plague outbreak\, but settlements o
 n other principal roads and on rivers did not have an increased chance of 
 a plague outbreak. We also find that the spillovers from locations on arte
 rial roads were non-existent. These findings suggest that plague was not s
 preading via human-to-human transmission in England in our period. The low
  share of settlements affected is also in striking contrast to the Black D
 eath and to early modern plague epidemics on the continent such as those i
 n Northern Italy in the 1630s. Our finding that the transport network was 
 not that important highlights that the rat-flea transmission chain of plag
 ue was fragile and therefore could be broken with only partially effective
  quarantines.\n\nBio: Originally from Denver\, Colorado\, Professor Schnei
 der received a bachelor’s degree from the University of Puget Sound with
  a major in History and a minor in Biology. He then studied for an MPhil i
 n Economic and Social History at St. Hilda’s College\, University of Oxf
 ord before moving to Nuffield College for his doctorate. He has worked at 
 LSE since 2015. In his spare time\, he enjoys travelling\, gardening\, han
 ging out with his dog\, and hiking.
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